Forecast Origin Dates
Overview
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2021 upwelling season. The forecast for 2021 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (April 5, April 15, April 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model, CFS.
The forecasts simulate conditions in 2021. The pH and Ω fields are calculated using an empirical relationship established by Alin et al., in prep. This work is part of a collaboration between Samantha Siedlecki, J-SCOPE, and the Ocean Acidification group at NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL).
The movie above shows the J-SCOPE forecast for 2021, from ensemble model run 1 initialized on April 5. The 8-day upwelling index is calculated using the method described in Austin and Barth (2002) and can also be found under the California Current Indicators tab above.
Surface Fields
Aragonite saturation state at the sea surface is forecast to be supersaturated (Ω > 1) for the entire forecast, with saturation states peaking in mid-summer (July - August) and then decreasing to a minimum in late fall (November - December).
The modeled region surface aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, November - December. For reference, Ω = 1 is the physical chemistry defined boundary between undersaturated and saturated conditions, but stressful conditions for juvenile oysters begin to occur before the waters become undersaturated (Ω = 1.3). The 200m isobath is outlined by the beige contour line.
Bottom Fields
Aragonite saturation state at the seafloor is forecast to decrease over the course of the summer and fall. Most of the modeled region is forecast to be undersaturated (Ω < 1) for the entire forecast season, with the exception of coastal locations off of Washington at the beginning (May - June) and end (November - December) of the forecast, and a few isolated inlets in Washington in the middle of the forecast (July - October) that remain supersaturated (Ω > 1).
The modeled region bottom aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, November - December. For reference, Ω = 1 is the physical chemistry defined boundary between undersaturated and saturated conditions, but stressful conditions for juvenile oysters begin to occur before the waters become undersaturated (Ω = 1.3). The 200m isobath is outlined by the beige contour line.