Forecast Origin Dates
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the 2015 upwelling season. The system predicts the timing of the spring transition from downwelling to upwelling, the cumulative upwelling index, sea-surface temperature (SST), primary production, chlorophyll stock, dissolved oxygen concentration, and sardine habitat. The forecast for 2015 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (April 1, April 15, May 1), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model CFS. The details of the wind forcing for each model run can be found on the California Current Indicators tab. For each of the standard predicted quantities listed above, we report the ensemble average as well as the relative uncertainty within the ensemble, which is defined as the standard deviation of the ensemble divided by the mean of the ensemble and is reported as a percentage of the mean. All of these fields are reported as monthly averaged anomalies from regional climatologies (Venegas et al, 2008; Pierce et al, 2012; Crawford and Pena, 2014). These predicted quantities are key indicators for the California Current IEA report.
The movie above shows the J-SCOPE forecast for 2015, from ensemble model run #3 initialized on April 15. More information about the three panels above can be found by navigating the Chlorophyll, SST, and Oxygen tabs above. The panel on the far right depicts the evolution of bottom water pH over the forecast period. The pH field is calculated using an empirical relationship established by Alin et al., in prep. This work is part of a collaboration between Samantha Siedlecki, J-SCOPE, and the Ocean Acidification group at NOAA PMEL. The 8-day upwelling index is calculated using the method described in Austin and Barth (2002) and can also be found under the California Current Indicators tab above.