Forecast Origin Dates
Overview
The J-SCOPE forecast system for Washington and Oregon coastal waters presents preliminary results for the ocean acidification conditions during the 2017 upwelling season. The forecast for 2017 is composed of three model runs that make up an ensemble. Each model run is initialized at a different time (April 2, April 15, April 25), and has complementary forcing files from the large scale model CFS.
The forecasts simulate conditions in 2017. The pH and Ω fields are calculated using an empirical relationship established by Alin et al., in prep. This work is part of a collaboration between Samantha Siedlecki, J-SCOPE, and the Ocean Acidification group at NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL).
The movie above shows the J-SCOPE forecast for 2017, from ensemble model run #1 initialized on April 2. The 8-day upwelling index is calculated using the method described in Austin and Barth (2002) and can also be found under the California Current Indicators tab above.
Surface Fields
Aragonite saturation state at the sea surface is forecasted to be supersaturated over the modeled region for the entire upwelling season, peaking in mid-summer (July - August). Aragonite saturation then decreases and approaches stressful conditions for oyster larvae (<1.4) by the end of fall (November - December).
The modeled region surface aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, and November - December. For reference, Ω=1 is the physical chemistry defined boundary between undersaturated and saturated conditions, but stressful conditions for juvenile oysters begin to occur before the waters become undersaturated (Ω=1.3). The 200m isobath is outlined by the grey contour line.
Bottom Fields
Aragonite saturation state at the seafloor is forecasted to be undersaturated over most of the modeled region for the entire upwelling season, with the exception of coastal locations off of Washington at the beginning of the upwelling season (May - June) and at the end of the fall (November - December).
The modeled region bottom aragonite saturation state (Ω) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, and November - December. For reference, Ω=1 is the physical chemistry defined boundary between undersaturated and saturated conditions, but stressful conditions for juvenile oysters begin to occur before the waters become undersaturated (Ω=1.3). The 200m isobath is outlined by the grey contour line.
Severity Index
In development.