Forecast Origin Dates
J-SCOPE forecast results for the simulation beginning in April of 2016 are shown through a series of figures below. Each panel represents ensemble averaged anomalies of two month averages for the region. The lower panels depict the relative uncertainty from the ensemble for the same time period.
From the maps, oxygen is forecasted to be higher than the climatology over much of the upwelling season of 2016 in both Washington and Oregon. Oxygen is forecasted to be lower than the climatology on the shallow shelf beginning in July - August and continuing through the fall. The relative uncertainty ranges from 10% or less in May-Jun, with the exception of a few regions on the inner shelf in Oregon where uncertainty reaches 20%. The relative uncertainty gets higher on the shelf for the rest of the forecast (up to ~50% ), and is generally higher in Oregon.
Time series of bottom oxygen from the Washington coast near one of the OCNMS moorings sited at Cape Elizabeth and from NH-10 on the Oregon shelf are shown from each member of the ensemble. The model forecasts that hypoxia will most likely develop at these locations in late June of 2016 (which is later than the climatological timing indicated by the green line), but may develop earlier. Another time series from the outer Washington shelf, Ćháʔba·, is also shown, and hypoxia is not forecast for this location until August.
Finally, climatological cross-sections from the Newport Line in Oregon, as well as the Grays Harbor Line in Washington, are compared to the forecasted average of the ensemble members. The forecast projects that the oxygen concentration for the upwelling season of 2016 will be higher than the climatology.
The emergence in anoxia in the model is caused by a bias associated with the lack of relaxations in the winds (found to be important in a paper by Adams et al, 2013) in CFS as well as a bias in the short wave radiation (see 2013, Year in Review). The model does have skill in predicting the emergence and severity of hypoxia, while it is biased low for these reasons. Given the difficulty in predicting the fall transition in 2013 or 2014 (see 2013, Year in Review), the forecast for low oxygen levels forecasted well into September is highly uncertain.
The modeled region bottom oxygen (ml/l) averaged over all three ensemble members and in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, and November - December. Hypoxia (1.4 ml/l) is outlined by the white contour.
The relative uncertainty in percent for the modeled region bottom oxygen values averaged in time for (from left to right) May - June, July - August, September - October, and November - December. The relative uncertainty is defined as the standard deviation of the ensemble divided by the mean of the ensemble and is reported as a percentage of the mean.
Time series for bottom oxygen at one of the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary Moorings (CEO42,~47.5 N) for each of the three ensemble members. Hypoxia is outlined but the blue region on the plot. The timing of each run’s onset of hypoxic conditions for more than eight days is identified by the vertical dotted lines, with the green line indicating the climatological timing.
Time series for bottom oxygen at the NH-10 mooring in Oregon (~45 N) for each of the three ensemble members. Hypoxia is outlined but the blue region on the plot. The timing of each run’s onset of hypoxic conditions for more than eight days is identified by the vertical dotted lines. The climatological timing is depicted by the green line.
Time series for bottom oxygen at the Ćháʔba· mooring (~48 N) for each of the three ensemble members. Hypoxia is outlined but the blue region on the plot. The timing of each run’s onset of hypoxic conditions for more than eight days is identified by the vertical dotted lines. The climatological timing is depicted by the green line.
The modeled cross-section from the Newport Line (left) and the Grays Harbor Line (right), averaged over all three ensemble members, and averaged over the summer upwelling months.